Prices in Singapore are still rising, but the pace in September was a shade gentler than in August. MAS core inflation came in at 2.0 percent year on year, and the official outlook points to a slightly elevated reading for a few more quarters before things ease.
In this article we will discuss what core and headline inflation measure, which items pushed the figures up or down, what the forecasts say about 2027, and how households and small businesses can plan their spending.
The September Reading in Brief
The Monetary Authority of Singapore published its consumer price developments on 23 October 2026. MAS core inflation was 2.0 percent year on year in September, down from 2.2 percent in August. On a month-on-month basis, core prices were up 0.1 percent. The wider CPI-All Items measure, which is the figure most people call headline inflation, was 2.2 percent year on year, compared with 2.3 percent in August, and it rose 0.2 percent from the previous month.
Two things stand out. The first is direction: both measures eased slightly, which fits with a story of cooling price pressure in services and goods. The second is that headline inflation sits above core, which is a clue that some of the items left out of core, notably private transport and accommodation, are rising faster than the average. The sections below take those two clues in turn.
Readers should keep the size of these moves in perspective. A fall from 2.2 to 2.0 percent does not mean prices are falling. It means prices are rising a little more slowly than they were, so the cost of a typical basket is still higher than a year ago. Whether that feels like a squeeze depends on what you spend money on and how your pay has moved over the same period.
The September release is also a reminder of how mixed the details can be beneath a calm headline. Falling furniture and telecommunication prices sit alongside rising rents and food costs, and a household may find that its own basket resembles neither. That is why the component table deserves as much attention as the top-line figure, and why a short monthly review of your own bills is worth the effort.
Core and Headline Inflation Compared
The two numbers answer different questions, and mixing them up is the most common mistake in coverage of the monthly release. Each is useful, but for different readers and different decisions.
Core Inflation
MAS core inflation strips out accommodation and private transport from the consumer price index. Those two categories are removed because they tend to swing for reasons that are not closely tied to day-to-day domestic demand. Private transport prices, for example, reflect the cost of owning a car in Singapore, which is shaped by policy settings on vehicle ownership and by auction results. Accommodation costs, which include rents and related items, follow the property market and can move in ways that are only loosely related to the price of groceries or haircuts. Removing them gives a steadier view of underlying price pressure, which is why MAS uses it as its main yardstick.
Headline Inflation
CPI-All Items inflation, the headline measure, covers the full basket, including accommodation and private transport. For a household, it is closer to the experience of the average consumer, although no real household spends exactly like the average. A family that owns two cars and rents a flat will feel the headline number differently from a retiree who lives in an HDB flat that is fully paid for and uses public transport. The headline number is therefore a guide, not a personal inflation rate.
Which One to Watch
For judging the broad direction of prices, core inflation is the better gauge. For checking whether your own budget is under strain, look at the individual components that matter to you, such as food, utilities, transport and housing. When the headline number is above core, as it was in September, the gap usually points to one or both of the excluded categories running hot. In September private transport, at 7.1 percent, was the obvious candidate for that gap, although the release gives no weights, so that remains an inference rather than a calculation.
Reading Year on Year and Month on Month
The release quotes both annual and monthly changes, and they tell different stories. Year on year compares September 2026 with September 2025. It captures the cumulative change over twelve months and smooths out short-lived swings. Month on month compares September with August, so it shows momentum, but it can be pushed around by one-off factors.
Here is how the pieces fit. Core inflation of 2.0 percent year on year means that core prices are 2.0 percent higher than a year earlier. The 0.1 percent monthly rise means that prices edged up from August to September. Both can be true while the annual rate falls from 2.2 to 2.0 percent. That happens when the monthly increase this year is smaller than the monthly increase in the same month a year earlier, which drops out of the twelve-month window. This so-called base effect is a regular feature of annual inflation data and explains why the headline rate can ease even as prices keep climbing month by month.
A practical tip follows. When you see a one-month change of 0.1 or 0.2 percent, do not read it as a trend. Singapore’s monthly series is noisy, and a single month can reflect timing of utility tariffs, the start of a school term, or a short-lived discount cycle. Three consecutive months moving in the same direction are a much better basis for talking about momentum. The annual figure is the number that most agencies, economists and wage negotiators use.
Components Behind the September Figure
MAS breaks the index down into several components, and the contrast between them is the most revealing part of the release. The table below compares September with August on a year-on-year basis, using the figures published by MAS.
| Component | September (percent, year on year) | August (percent, year on year) |
| Services | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Retail and other goods | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Private transport | 7.1 | 7.5 |
| Food | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Accommodation | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Electricity and gas | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Services and Retail Goods Eased
Services inflation slowed to 1.7 percent from 2.0 percent. MAS pointed to two reasons: the cost of point-to-point transport, which covers taxi and ride-hail trips, rose less than before, and telecommunication prices fell by more. Retail and other goods slowed from 1.8 to 1.2 percent as furniture prices fell and clothing prices rose more slowly. These categories carry a lot of weight in core inflation, so their easing explains most of the decline from 2.2 to 2.0 percent. For shoppers, it is consistent with a market in which some furniture and clothing items are being sold at steadier or lower prices than a year ago, though individual items will vary.
Transport and Accommodation
Private transport inflation was still high at 7.1 percent, though lower than 7.5 percent in August, because car prices rose more gradually. Accommodation inflation edged up to 0.9 percent from 0.8 percent as housing rents rose faster. Neither sits inside core inflation, but both sit inside headline inflation, and the first is the one that keeps headline above core. If you drive, the figure explains why costs of ownership keep climbing in the official data. If you rent, the small pick-up in accommodation is a reminder that rent increases may continue at renewal, even though the reading is still the lowest of the components shown.
Food and Energy
Food inflation rose to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent, with MAS citing higher inflation in non-cooked food and in food services. In plain terms, groceries and meals outside the home are both costing a little more than they did. Electricity and gas stayed at 8.7 percent, the same as in August. MAS noted that the regulated electricity tariff for the third quarter reflects the spike in global energy prices from April to mid-June 2026. The tariff is generally set for each quarter, so a surge in wholesale energy costs filters into household bills with a delay and can stay in the data for a while even after markets calm.
It also helps to remember that official inflation is an average over many thousands of price quotes. Your own experience can differ for good reasons: a household with school-age children spends on education and healthcare, where the outlook says government subsidies are helping to hold down domestic pressure, while a household with a long commute spends more on transport. Writing down your own largest five expenses and checking how each has moved is more useful than comparing yourself with the national number.
A last note on sources: the figures above come from the MAS release of 23 October 2026, and the next release will update them. Small revisions are common, so quote the latest published number if you are using inflation in a contract, a rent discussion or a business plan, and say which month it refers to.
Forecasts and Risks Into 2027
MAS and the trade ministry expect imported cost pressures to remain firm. Energy prices are projected to stay high and food prices are expected to pick up. Domestic price pressures, in contrast, should stay subdued, helped by contained unit labour costs in services and by government subsidies for healthcare and education. The overall judgement is that core inflation will stay slightly elevated in the immediate quarters ahead, and will ease more clearly from mid-2027.
The Forecast Ranges
The official forecasts are set out in ranges rather than single numbers, which is itself informative. A range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent for 2027 admits that a lot can change in a year. The table summarises the published projections.
| Measure | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast |
| MAS core inflation | 1.5 to 2.0 percent | 1.5 to 2.5 percent |
| CPI-All Items inflation | Around 2.0 percent | 1.5 to 2.5 percent |
Notice that September’s core reading of 2.0 percent sits at the top of the range for 2026. For households, the safest reading is that price rises of around two percent a year remain the planning assumption, and a rise toward the upper end of the 2027 range is entirely possible if the risks below materialise.
Risks to the Upside
MAS and the trade ministry describe the risks as skewed to the upside. A sharp rise in global energy or food prices could push imported inflation higher than projected. Domestic inflation could also come in stronger if spillovers from artificial intelligence-related activity lift unit labour costs. In practice, that second risk would mean that tight demand for skilled workers feeds into wages and, over time, into the prices of services.
Risks to the Downside
The downside risks are a rise in global interest rates, a pullback in AI-related investment, and a faster recovery in Middle East energy supply. Each would reduce price pressure, either by cooling demand or by bringing energy costs down. A reader should not hope for or fear any one of them. Forecasts of this kind are updated as new data arrives, so the ranges above are a snapshot of current thinking and the official agencies will revise them when conditions change.
Household Budgets Under Steady but Uneven Prices
A headline of two percent can hide a lot of variation across a household’s spending. The September figures show a split between items that are rising quickly, such as electricity and gas and private transport, and items that are close to flat, such as accommodation and retail goods. A family that spends heavily on the first group will feel more pressure than one that spends mainly on the second.
Utilities
Electricity and gas at 8.7 percent is the standout number for most households. Because the tariff reflects an earlier spike in energy markets, the practical response is to focus on usage. Setting an air-conditioner to a moderate temperature, using a timer or a fan to cut hours of cooling, and switching off standby appliances are small steps that add up. It also helps to compare your household’s consumption month by month from the bill, rather than only looking at the total, so that you can tell whether a higher bill comes from price or from usage.
Food and Groceries
Food inflation at 2.4 percent is the most visible item in the weekly routine. The release says non-cooked food and food services both rose more quickly, so neither the supermarket nor the hawker centre offers an escape. Tracking a few staple items you buy regularly, such as rice, eggs, vegetables and cooking oil, over two or three months will show whether prices are moving faster than the headline suggests. Planning meals around what is on offer and comparing unit prices usually saves more than chasing one-off deals, though no one can promise that prices at any particular store will stay stable.
Transport
Private transport inflation at 7.1 percent matters mainly to car owners and to people deciding whether to buy a car. If you are weighing a purchase, remember that running costs, insurance and parking come on top of the price of the car itself, and that official statistics describe an average, not the quote you will get. Public transport users face a different set of costs, and fares are reviewed by the Public Transport Council through its own process, so check official announcements instead of assuming they follow the CPI.
One more point about timing. Because the electricity tariff reflects an earlier energy spike and the outlook says energy prices should stay high, households should not assume that the 8.7 percent reading will disappear in the next release. Equally, a fall in global energy prices would take time to show in bills. The sensible stance is to budget as though current levels will last, and to treat any relief as a bonus rather than a plan.
An Illustration of the Arithmetic
A simple illustration, using invented round numbers, shows how percentages translate into dollars. Suppose a household spends S$1,000 a month on food and food prices rise 2.4 percent over a year. The extra cost would be S$24 a month, or S$288 a year, for the same basket. Now suppose the same household spends S$200 a month on electricity and gas, and prices rise 8.7 percent. That adds S$17.40 a month. These are illustrative numbers only, not a forecast of your bills, but they show that a smaller percentage on a bigger item can matter as much as a large percentage on a small one.
Comparing Prices With Your Own Income
The inflation figure only tells half of the story for a household. The other half is income. If your pay or business income rose by more than the relevant price increases over the past year, your purchasing power has improved, and if it rose by less, it has slipped. Core inflation of 2.0 percent is a handy benchmark for that comparison, although your personal spending mix could be higher or lower.
One way to do this is to compare your pay rise, including any regular allowance, with the annual rate for the categories you spend the most on. Be careful with bonuses and one-off payments, since they do not repeat in the same way as a built-in raise. If you are due for a pay review, the official inflation numbers and the forecasts can be a useful reference in conversation with your employer, along with your own record of contribution and market information on pay for similar jobs.
Remember also that inflation affects savings. A deposit paying less than the rate of price increases loses buying power over time, even though the balance looks safe. This is general information, not financial advice, and a licensed adviser can help with decisions about where to keep money. Check MAS for official information on financial products and on the rules that protect consumers.
Using the Figures in a Pay Conversation
If you plan to raise pay with an employer, bring a short, factual note. State the annual inflation rate for the categories you spend on, mention any added responsibilities you have taken on, and say what you are asking for. Many managers respond better to a measured request tied to contribution and market pay than to a demand framed only around the cost of living. Employers can use the same figures to explain why a raise is or is not possible, which keeps the discussion on facts.
Small Businesses and Cost Pressure
Business owners face the same inflation from the other side. When MAS describes imported cost pressures as firm, it means that ingredients, fuel, packaging and equipment bought from abroad remain expensive. For cafes, retailers and small manufacturers, the margin squeeze is real, and it comes even though overall core inflation is not especially high.
Costs You Can Influence
Start with the costs that can be managed. Review supplier contracts and ask for quotes from at least two alternatives before renewing. Track electricity use by appliance, since cooling and refrigeration are typically the largest items for food businesses. Reduce waste in stock and in preparation, because spoilage is a cost that no price index will forgive. Look at payment terms as well, since a longer credit period with suppliers can ease cash flow without touching prices.
Pricing With Care
Raising prices is sometimes unavoidable, but how it is done matters. Smaller, more frequent adjustments can be less noticeable than a large one, and communicating the reason to regular customers usually goes down better than silence. Menu engineering, which means promoting dishes with good margins and rethinking those with poor ones, can protect profits without raising the headline price of everything. Businesses should also keep an eye on what competitors charge.
Business owners should also look at the pattern of the release for clues about customers. Retail goods inflation of 1.2 percent suggests limited room to pass on higher costs in categories where prices are already easing, while services at 1.7 percent suggests more room, though still modest. Reading the components this way can guide which products or services can carry a price rise and which should be held steady. It is a rough guide only, and a business’s own sales data will always tell a more precise story.
Labour Costs
The outlook says contained unit labour costs in services are helping to keep domestic price pressure in check. For an employer, that is a reminder that wage decisions feed into price decisions across the economy. Productivity improvements that let staff handle more with the same hours, such as better scheduling or simple automation, are the sustainable way to pay for rising wages without passing every increase on to customers. Each employer should check the current wage guidance and obligations with MOM.
Final Thoughts: A Household Checklist for the Months Ahead
Begin by taking one evening to list your recurring costs and sort them into those that move with prices and those that are fixed. Utilities, food and transport belong in the first group, and a fixed mortgage payment or a flat-rate subscription in the second. Then choose two or three items to watch each month, using bills and receipts. A simple spreadsheet or a notebook will do, and tracking over several months is far more reliable than relying on memory.
Next, plan for the possibility that electricity and food costs stay high for some time. The outlook points to firm imported cost pressures and energy prices staying high, so building a modest buffer into the monthly budget is sensible. Where possible, reduce usage in the largest bill rather than trying to trim every small item. If you are renewing a lease or a contract, ask early and compare options, because rent and service costs may drift up.
Finally, keep an eye on the data. The Department of Statistics and MAS publish inflation figures regularly, and releases usually appear late in each month, though dates can change, so check the official calendar. Treat each release as one data point in a longer trend, and be wary of headlines that pick out a single month. This article offers general information and is not personal financial advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How Much Was Core Inflation in September 2026?
MAS core inflation was 2.0 percent year on year in September, down from 2.2 percent in August. It rose 0.1 percent from the previous month.
2. Is Core Inflation the Same as Headline Inflation?
No. Core inflation excludes accommodation and private transport, while headline CPI-All Items inflation covers the full basket. In September the headline figure was 2.2 percent.
3. Which Items Are Getting More Expensive Fastest?
Electricity and gas rose 8.7 percent year on year and private transport rose 7.1 percent, according to the MAS figures. Food rose 2.4 percent.
4. When Will Inflation Ease?
MAS and the trade ministry expect core inflation to stay slightly elevated in the immediate quarters ahead and to ease more clearly from mid-2027. Forecasts can be revised, so check later releases.
5. Which Inflation Forecasts Have Officials Given for 2027?
MAS core inflation is forecast at 1.5 to 2.5 percent in 2027, and CPI-All Items inflation also at 1.5 to 2.5 percent. For 2026, core is forecast at 1.5 to 2.0 percent and headline at around 2.0 percent.
6. Where Can I Find the Next Inflation Release?
MAS and the Department of Statistics publish the data, and releases usually come in the latter part of each month. Check the official websites for the exact date.
